Philippines to cut H1 paddy rice forecast

The Philippines may cut its paddy rice output forecast for the first half of 2010 by about 3.4% to around 7 million tons as hot weather shrinks the harvest, a senior government official said on Tuesday. The latest estimate is for first-quarter output of paddy, or unhusked rice, to come in at around 3.63 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 3.8 million tons and nearly 8% less than a year earlier, said Maura Lizarondo, assistant director at the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. "Based on the updated Q1 forecast, the first-half estimate may be revised down to around 7 million tons from 7.25 million tons," Lizarondo told Reuters in a phone interview. This year's drier-than-usual weather, the worst to hit the Philippines since 1998, is parching farmlands. Lizarondo said it was possible the first-half forecast may be cut further as the second-quarter harvest was also likely to be hit. She said both harvest areas and crop yields had fallen. More than 200,000 tons of paddy have been lost due to the dry spell, and last month the government said a severe drought could see losses exceed 800,000 tons. The Philippines is the world's biggest importer of rice. Its 2010 imports are already at a record 2.45 million tons, and officials have said extended dry weather could see them top 3 million tons. But Lizarondo said this year's El Nino is unlikely to be as severe as the one that hit the Philippines in 1998 when rice production contracted 24%. The weather bureau has forecast a moderate El Nino condition until June, delaying the monsoon season to the second half of that month. It has forecast below-normal rainfall for April-June for most of the country, although it forecast near-normal rainfall for some parts of southern Luzon, the country's biggest island. Besides El Nino, Lizarondo said there were also reports of rat infestations in key rice-growing areas in the central part of the main Luzon island.