Global Rice Trade Likely 30 Mln Tons In 2010, Up 6%

The global trade in rice will likely rise 6% this year, to a three-year high of 30
million metric tons, the International Grains Council said.
The trade is expected to be higher than the five-year average due to a rebound in
shipments to Asia, the council said in a recent report.
Deliveries to Far East Asia are forecast to rise 20%, to 8.1 million tons, due to
strong imports by Bangladesh and the Philippines.
Bangladesh is forecast to increase imports to 700,000 tons this year from 145,000
tons in 2009 due to reduced production and increased consumption, the IGC said.
In the Philippines, heightened worries about domestic supplies following crop
damage due to two typhoons in quick succession last year prompted the National Food
Authority, or NFA, to purchase 1.82 million tons late last year for 2010 delivery.
With the government expecting to buy more, imports by the Philippines are forecast
to rise 34%, to 2.6 million tons, in 2010, the IGC said. The NFA was recently
given approval to import more than 3 million tons if necessary, to compensate for
any weather-related crop losses.
Imports by Indonesia, a major buyer in recent years, are forecast to be unchanged
at 300,000 tons in 2010, while shipments to Malaysia will also remain steady, at
900,000 tons.
Due to a rise in shipments by Thailand and Pakistan, total exports by the five
leading exporters of rice including Vietnam, India and the U.S. is projected to rise
7% by 24 million tons.
Government procurement and strong international competition resulted in a
steep decline in Thailand’s rice exports last year. The government is now offering 2.0
million tons of old crop stocks to exporters in 2010 but an auction to sell 375,000
tons in January was unsuccessful.
If price quotations are competitive, Thailand’s rice exports may rise to 10 million
tons this year and drag down shipments from neighboring Vietnam.
Despite large sales to the Philippines, rice exports by Vietnam are likely to fall
8% to 5.5 million tons. Due to restrictions in exports by India, shipments by neighboring Pakistan are likely to rise to 3.3 million tons from 2.7 million tons.
There was a marked increase in South America’s rice exports in 2009 to 2.1 million
tons but these levels are unlikely to be sustained this year and may decline to 1.8
million tons, though they will still be above the historical average, the council said.