Friday 4 January 2013
India internal rice market prices
A steady trend prevailed in the rice market with prices of aromatic and non-basmati varieties maintaining their previous levels on Thursday.
Amit Chandna, proprietor of Hanuman Rice Trading Company, told Business Line that moderate buying kept the price unchanged. Retail buyers are purchasing limited quantity following too much volatility in the market. Traders expect the market to witness some good levels in days to come by as market sentiments are still largely positive, he said.
In the physical market, after witnessing an uptrend earlier this week, aromatic and non-basmati varieties remained unaltered.
Pusa-1121 (steam) sold at Rs 6,700-6,800 a quintal while Pusa-1121 (sela) went for Rs 5,800.
Pure basmati (raw) quoted at Rs 8,000. Duplicate basmati (steam) traded at Rs 5,500-5,600.
Sharbati (steam) quoted at Rs 4,300 while Sharbati (sela) was at Rs 4,175.
PR-11 (sela) was sold at Rs 2,550-2,650 while PR-11 (raw) quoted at Rs 2,550-2,600. Permal (raw) sold at Rs 2,200-2,300 while Permal (sela) went for Rs 2,150-2,300.
PADDY ARRIVALS
About 2,000 bags of PR variety arrived and went for Rs 1,150-1,200, Sharbati arrived with a stock of around 1,500 bags and quoted at Rs 2,100-2,135. About 1,000 bags of Sugandha 999 went for Rs 2,600-2,700.
About 5,000 bags of Pusa-1121 arrived and quoted at Rs 3,000-3,250 a quintal.
Thursday 3 January 2013
Thailand 7m tonnes under G2G deals planned for this year
The government vows to sell 7 million tonnes of its rice stocks this year through government-to-government (G2G) deals amid lingering concerns among rice exporters that the mission is impossible.
"The claim this time is as usual deemed impossible, except that the government dares to sell Thai rice at price on par with that of Vietnam, now quoted at US$420 per tonne," said a source from the rice trading industry.
The price of Thai white rice 5% now stands between $550-560 per tonne. Vatchari Vimooktayon, permanent secretary for commerce, yesterday unveiled the ministry's latest rice mission, planning at best to sell 7 million tonnes of rice stocks on top of the 7.33 million tonnes Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom announced earlier. Last September Mr Boonsong announced that his ministry had concluded six export deals through G2G contracts with Indonesia, the Philippines, China and Ivory Coast.
Mr Boonsong's announcement still leaves rice exporters and the rice trading industry in the dark as he remains tight-lipped on details of the transactions, particularly prices or how much each buyer purchased.
No details on the previous rice deals through G2G contracts were available from Mrs Vatchari.
"Say whatever you want [about G2G rice sales] and the amount of rice stocks under the government's memorandum of understanding," the source said. "But the question whether they [buyers] will buy remains unanswered. And this year, India, which controls a large amount of rice stocks, plans to ship all year."
The source urged the government to divulge how it will sell its existing stocks which are likely to amount to 11.5 million tonnes of milled rice, and how it will tackle the estimated 12 million tonnes of milled rice in the new harvest this year. "From the middle of this year, we will start seeing the government having trouble finding warehouses to keep its massive rice stocks," he said. "Meanwhile, rice exporters themselves have to shift to improving rice quality and investing in warehouses to be rented by the government to store its rice stocks. Thai rice exports are expected to be in trouble over the next two years."
"The claim this time is as usual deemed impossible, except that the government dares to sell Thai rice at price on par with that of Vietnam, now quoted at US$420 per tonne," said a source from the rice trading industry.
The price of Thai white rice 5% now stands between $550-560 per tonne. Vatchari Vimooktayon, permanent secretary for commerce, yesterday unveiled the ministry's latest rice mission, planning at best to sell 7 million tonnes of rice stocks on top of the 7.33 million tonnes Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom announced earlier. Last September Mr Boonsong announced that his ministry had concluded six export deals through G2G contracts with Indonesia, the Philippines, China and Ivory Coast.
Mr Boonsong's announcement still leaves rice exporters and the rice trading industry in the dark as he remains tight-lipped on details of the transactions, particularly prices or how much each buyer purchased.
No details on the previous rice deals through G2G contracts were available from Mrs Vatchari.
"Say whatever you want [about G2G rice sales] and the amount of rice stocks under the government's memorandum of understanding," the source said. "But the question whether they [buyers] will buy remains unanswered. And this year, India, which controls a large amount of rice stocks, plans to ship all year."
The source urged the government to divulge how it will sell its existing stocks which are likely to amount to 11.5 million tonnes of milled rice, and how it will tackle the estimated 12 million tonnes of milled rice in the new harvest this year. "From the middle of this year, we will start seeing the government having trouble finding warehouses to keep its massive rice stocks," he said. "Meanwhile, rice exporters themselves have to shift to improving rice quality and investing in warehouses to be rented by the government to store its rice stocks. Thai rice exports are expected to be in trouble over the next two years."
Asia rice trading lull after holidays
HANOI, Vietnam - Asian rice trading is yet to pick up this week with market participants just trickling back after year-end holidays, while buying demand could emerge next month when a major crop harvest begins in Vietnam, traders said on Wednesday.
"It's quite a sluggish market today because it's the first day that we are back after New Year holiday and many rice mills are still away," a trader in Bangkok said.
The benchmark 100 percent B grade Thai white rice declined to $570 per ton, from last week's range of $570-$580. The 5-percent broken grade white rice advanced to $570 a ton this week from $560 last week.
Buyers have also been absent in Vietnam, where loading for small deals to the Philippines and China were under way, traders said.
"Several private firms were buying for the Philippines but their purchase, plus loading to China, did not leave any impact on the market," a trader in Ho Chi Minh City said.
Demand has yet to emerge from Africa, one of the key buyers of Vietnamese rice after Asia, he said.
Vietnam's 5 percent broken rice stood unchanged at $415-$420 a ton, free-on-board (FOB) basis, while the 25-percent broken grain edged up to $390-$395 a ton, from $370-$375 a week ago.
"Prices of the 25 percent broken grain rose because of low supply of low-grade rice to process this variety, while there is no actual demand," the Ho Chi Minh City-based trader said.
Last week Vietnam introduced a floor of $370 a ton for low-quality 35-percent broken rice for export.
Traders said the floor price has been imposed to prevent an expected fall in prices when Mekong Delta farmers begin harvesting the winter-spring crop from late next month.
The crop is Vietnam's biggest among its three rice crops grown each year in the Delta, the food basket.
Trading is expected to pick up from next week or later this month as companies assess the winter-spring crop production in the Mekong Delta, traders said.
Final data of Vietnam's rice export were not immediately available, while the government's statistics agency has estimated the annual shipment to reach an all-time high of 8.05 million tons.
"It's quite a sluggish market today because it's the first day that we are back after New Year holiday and many rice mills are still away," a trader in Bangkok said.
The benchmark 100 percent B grade Thai white rice declined to $570 per ton, from last week's range of $570-$580. The 5-percent broken grade white rice advanced to $570 a ton this week from $560 last week.
Buyers have also been absent in Vietnam, where loading for small deals to the Philippines and China were under way, traders said.
"Several private firms were buying for the Philippines but their purchase, plus loading to China, did not leave any impact on the market," a trader in Ho Chi Minh City said.
Demand has yet to emerge from Africa, one of the key buyers of Vietnamese rice after Asia, he said.
Vietnam's 5 percent broken rice stood unchanged at $415-$420 a ton, free-on-board (FOB) basis, while the 25-percent broken grain edged up to $390-$395 a ton, from $370-$375 a week ago.
"Prices of the 25 percent broken grain rose because of low supply of low-grade rice to process this variety, while there is no actual demand," the Ho Chi Minh City-based trader said.
Last week Vietnam introduced a floor of $370 a ton for low-quality 35-percent broken rice for export.
Traders said the floor price has been imposed to prevent an expected fall in prices when Mekong Delta farmers begin harvesting the winter-spring crop from late next month.
The crop is Vietnam's biggest among its three rice crops grown each year in the Delta, the food basket.
Trading is expected to pick up from next week or later this month as companies assess the winter-spring crop production in the Mekong Delta, traders said.
Final data of Vietnam's rice export were not immediately available, while the government's statistics agency has estimated the annual shipment to reach an all-time high of 8.05 million tons.
Philippines Government still undecided on rice imports
THE government will wait for the third crop of rice to be harvested before deciding whether it would import milled rice to beef up local stocks for 2013, it was learned on Wednesday.
Agriculture Secretary Proceso J. Alcala said the National Food Authority (NFA) council may not decide on rice imports this month.
“[The Philippines] does not need [a big volume] of rice. Hindi tayo nagmamadali [We are not in a hurry]. We will make an announcement [on rice imports] possibly [in late] January or early February,” Alcala said.
The agriculture chief said that many palay (unhusked-rice) farmers were encouraged to plant a third crop under the early-cropping scheme of the government.
Under this scheme, farmers were enjoined to plant a month earlier or by April for the wet cropping season in 2012. Harvest then started in August. The plan also called for a third cropping, which started in October.
The scheme also enjoined farmers to avoid the period when strong typhoons usually visit the country, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).
The Philippines gets 60 percent of its annual palay harvest from the main wet-season cropping; the rest, from the dry-season cropping.
Earlier, Alcala said the DA is not keen on importing rice this year after a record palay harvest was projected last year.
According to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), the Philippines will increase its palay output by 7.7 percent on year to 17.98 million metric tons (MMT) for 2012.
Unmilled-rice output in July to December 2012 is projected to increase by 10.7 percent on year to 10.08 MMT.
Last year the government authorized the importation of 500,000 metric tons (MT) of rice, the bulk of which—380,000 MT—was purchased by the private sector. The NFA bought the rest.
The government entered the international rice market in March.
The 120,000 MT of rice bought by the NFA augmented its stocks as per its mandate to have 30 days’ worth of stocks when the lean season for rice starts in July.
Agriculture Secretary Proceso J. Alcala said the National Food Authority (NFA) council may not decide on rice imports this month.
“[The Philippines] does not need [a big volume] of rice. Hindi tayo nagmamadali [We are not in a hurry]. We will make an announcement [on rice imports] possibly [in late] January or early February,” Alcala said.
The agriculture chief said that many palay (unhusked-rice) farmers were encouraged to plant a third crop under the early-cropping scheme of the government.
Under this scheme, farmers were enjoined to plant a month earlier or by April for the wet cropping season in 2012. Harvest then started in August. The plan also called for a third cropping, which started in October.
The scheme also enjoined farmers to avoid the period when strong typhoons usually visit the country, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).
The Philippines gets 60 percent of its annual palay harvest from the main wet-season cropping; the rest, from the dry-season cropping.
Earlier, Alcala said the DA is not keen on importing rice this year after a record palay harvest was projected last year.
According to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), the Philippines will increase its palay output by 7.7 percent on year to 17.98 million metric tons (MMT) for 2012.
Unmilled-rice output in July to December 2012 is projected to increase by 10.7 percent on year to 10.08 MMT.
Last year the government authorized the importation of 500,000 metric tons (MT) of rice, the bulk of which—380,000 MT—was purchased by the private sector. The NFA bought the rest.
The government entered the international rice market in March.
The 120,000 MT of rice bought by the NFA augmented its stocks as per its mandate to have 30 days’ worth of stocks when the lean season for rice starts in July.
Viet Nam Hits Record Export Rice Volume in 2012
Viet Nam’s export rice volume in December 2012 reached about 630,000 tonnes, raising the figure for the whole of 2012 to 8.1 million tonnes, up 13.9 per cent against 2011, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
The year’s volume brought Viet Nam a total value of USD3.7 billion, a 2.1 per cent rise from the previous year.
This is considered a big success for Viet Nam’s rice sector after a year full of changes in the financial situation and rising agricultural material costs, according to Vietnamese communist party sources.
In 2012, with a 6.4 fold increase in volume and a 5.4 fold rise in value, China became the largest rice importer from Viet Nam.
Meanwhile, traditional markets such as Africa, Indonesia, Singapore, Senegal, and the Philippines witnessed reduction in both import volume and value.
In 2013, the Viet Nam rice export sector is forecast to face difficulties, as some markets are showing signs of reducing import volumes.
The year’s volume brought Viet Nam a total value of USD3.7 billion, a 2.1 per cent rise from the previous year.
This is considered a big success for Viet Nam’s rice sector after a year full of changes in the financial situation and rising agricultural material costs, according to Vietnamese communist party sources.
In 2012, with a 6.4 fold increase in volume and a 5.4 fold rise in value, China became the largest rice importer from Viet Nam.
Meanwhile, traditional markets such as Africa, Indonesia, Singapore, Senegal, and the Philippines witnessed reduction in both import volume and value.
In 2013, the Viet Nam rice export sector is forecast to face difficulties, as some markets are showing signs of reducing import volumes.
Thailand Rice scheme may be storing up trouble
The government's plan to continue the rice pledging scheme for another year is good news for farmers, but the issue worries economists.
Farmers will obtain the same prices for the first round _ 15,000 and 20,000 baht per tonne _ when pledging white rice and fragrant Hom Mali rice to millers that have joined the scheme.
Critics say big losses from the rice scheme could cause public debt to rise sharply in 2013 to as much as 50% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 40.22% posted as of Sept 30, the end of the fiscal year.
In the first year of the scheme, the Finance Ministry reported that about 350 billion baht was used to pledge 18 million tonnes of paddy.
Of the money, 260 billion baht was state-guaranteed loans, while 90 billion baht was the cash flow of the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), which charges 3% interest.
For the 2012-13 crop, 405 billion baht is planned to finance 25 million tonnes of paddy. The figure could rise because production is estimated at 37 million tonnes.
The cabinet approved only 150 billion baht as state-guaranteed loans and instructed the Commerce Ministry to speed up repayments to the BAAC to save interest expenses and allow the bank to have enough cash flow to continue this year's pledging process.
The ministry was only able to repay 72 billion baht to the BAAC from the 85 billion due this year.
The failure stemmed from the ministry's poor performance in selling rice to domestic and foreign markets.
As it paid farmers 40-50% above market prices, rice exports faced strong competition from much cheaper rice from India, Vietnam and Pakistan.
World Bank senior economist Kirida Bhaopichitr estimates the state may shoulder losses as high as 100 billion baht from rice sales each year, resulting in higher public debt.
At the current pace, public debt could reach 50% of GDP, but the former governor of the Bank of Thailand, MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, warned the level could rise to 61% by 2019.
Apart from a possible financial crisis, the scheme also has implications for storing rice. The government may build enough silos to keep as much as 4 million tonnes of rice for 7-8 years, longer than the current 2-3 years.
The move could indicate that the government expects to last for a few years.
Farmers will obtain the same prices for the first round _ 15,000 and 20,000 baht per tonne _ when pledging white rice and fragrant Hom Mali rice to millers that have joined the scheme.
Critics say big losses from the rice scheme could cause public debt to rise sharply in 2013 to as much as 50% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 40.22% posted as of Sept 30, the end of the fiscal year.
In the first year of the scheme, the Finance Ministry reported that about 350 billion baht was used to pledge 18 million tonnes of paddy.
Of the money, 260 billion baht was state-guaranteed loans, while 90 billion baht was the cash flow of the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), which charges 3% interest.
For the 2012-13 crop, 405 billion baht is planned to finance 25 million tonnes of paddy. The figure could rise because production is estimated at 37 million tonnes.
The cabinet approved only 150 billion baht as state-guaranteed loans and instructed the Commerce Ministry to speed up repayments to the BAAC to save interest expenses and allow the bank to have enough cash flow to continue this year's pledging process.
The ministry was only able to repay 72 billion baht to the BAAC from the 85 billion due this year.
The failure stemmed from the ministry's poor performance in selling rice to domestic and foreign markets.
As it paid farmers 40-50% above market prices, rice exports faced strong competition from much cheaper rice from India, Vietnam and Pakistan.
World Bank senior economist Kirida Bhaopichitr estimates the state may shoulder losses as high as 100 billion baht from rice sales each year, resulting in higher public debt.
At the current pace, public debt could reach 50% of GDP, but the former governor of the Bank of Thailand, MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, warned the level could rise to 61% by 2019.
Apart from a possible financial crisis, the scheme also has implications for storing rice. The government may build enough silos to keep as much as 4 million tonnes of rice for 7-8 years, longer than the current 2-3 years.
The move could indicate that the government expects to last for a few years.
Declining Indian rice prices affects rice export
Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) has expressed concern over the alarming decline of Pakistani Basmati rice exports in the wake of declining rates of Indian rice.
REAP urged the government to take appropriate measures for the betterment of Basmati rice exports. The government should particularly take action against the elements dumping Basmati rice and causing artificial price hike in local markets.
Jawed Ali Ghori Chairman REAP informed due to increased tariffs of electricity and gas, millers have to run their mills on diesel generators, which was multiplying their operational cost and for this reason prices of Basmati rice have increased by 15 percent.
On the other hand due to lower prices of Indian rice, Pakistan was facing 53 percent decline during the last six months of current fiscal year 2012-13 as compared of last fiscal year 2011-12.
Pakistan has exported 239,764 metric tonnes of Basmati rice valuing $233 million during July 2012 to December 2012, whereas for the same period in last year, we had exported 506,904 metric tonnes valuing $440 million. He claimed during the last six months, Pakistani rice was not getting good price from Iranian importers and for the same reason exports to Iran via Quetta Border has shown 66 percent decline. In addition tender of rice from Qatar government has been awarded to India due to their lower prices. He was worried Pakistan has not getting new orders from Oman, Abu Dhabi and Doha.
REAP urged the government to take appropriate measures for the betterment of Basmati rice exports. The government should particularly take action against the elements dumping Basmati rice and causing artificial price hike in local markets.
Jawed Ali Ghori Chairman REAP informed due to increased tariffs of electricity and gas, millers have to run their mills on diesel generators, which was multiplying their operational cost and for this reason prices of Basmati rice have increased by 15 percent.
On the other hand due to lower prices of Indian rice, Pakistan was facing 53 percent decline during the last six months of current fiscal year 2012-13 as compared of last fiscal year 2011-12.
Pakistan has exported 239,764 metric tonnes of Basmati rice valuing $233 million during July 2012 to December 2012, whereas for the same period in last year, we had exported 506,904 metric tonnes valuing $440 million. He claimed during the last six months, Pakistani rice was not getting good price from Iranian importers and for the same reason exports to Iran via Quetta Border has shown 66 percent decline. In addition tender of rice from Qatar government has been awarded to India due to their lower prices. He was worried Pakistan has not getting new orders from Oman, Abu Dhabi and Doha.
No international market for SL rice
Rice export was not possible as there was no international demand for Sri Lankan ordinary rice varieties, Agriculture Ministry Secretary Wijerathne Sakalasooriya told The Island yesterday (02).
He noted that the quality of milled rice produced in Sri Lanka was lower than that of average quality rice traded as mass exports.
"Other competing countries offer better quality rice of preferred varieties at the same price," he said.
"Sri Lanka is a high cost rice producer. We don’t earn even one dollar per one kg of rice in the international market. Cost of production of paddy is more expensive and we need two kilos of paddy to produce one kilo of rice that conform to international standards," he added.
"But there is a high demand for the Sri Lankan traditional ‘health rice such as Alhal, Suwedal, Rathhal’ in the world market specially in USA, UK and Europe," Sakalsooriya said.
Currently, Sri Lanka was engaged in exporting to small niche markets and there was a limited demand for ‘Samba’ and ‘red rice’ and another limited market for special varieties such as red pericarp long grain rice, he added. "We have begun some awareness and marketing campaigns in foreign countries to convince the international rice buyers of the value of our rice. We are encouraging our local farmers to cultivate rice varieties with medicinal value."
Meanwhile, the government has suspended export of rice to other countries until the next Maha Season harvest, due to the inclement weather which destroyed thousands of acres of cultivated paddy lands in the North-Western, North-Central Province and some areas in the Southern province.
More than 50,000 acres of rice cultivation were affected by floods in the Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Ampara and Trincomalee districts and around 100,000 acres of paddy land in the Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala Puttalam, and Trincomalee Districts were destroyed by the drought earlier. The loss of paddy harvest amounted to 400,000 MT of paddy from the drought
He noted that the quality of milled rice produced in Sri Lanka was lower than that of average quality rice traded as mass exports.
"Other competing countries offer better quality rice of preferred varieties at the same price," he said.
"Sri Lanka is a high cost rice producer. We don’t earn even one dollar per one kg of rice in the international market. Cost of production of paddy is more expensive and we need two kilos of paddy to produce one kilo of rice that conform to international standards," he added.
"But there is a high demand for the Sri Lankan traditional ‘health rice such as Alhal, Suwedal, Rathhal’ in the world market specially in USA, UK and Europe," Sakalsooriya said.
Currently, Sri Lanka was engaged in exporting to small niche markets and there was a limited demand for ‘Samba’ and ‘red rice’ and another limited market for special varieties such as red pericarp long grain rice, he added. "We have begun some awareness and marketing campaigns in foreign countries to convince the international rice buyers of the value of our rice. We are encouraging our local farmers to cultivate rice varieties with medicinal value."
Meanwhile, the government has suspended export of rice to other countries until the next Maha Season harvest, due to the inclement weather which destroyed thousands of acres of cultivated paddy lands in the North-Western, North-Central Province and some areas in the Southern province.
More than 50,000 acres of rice cultivation were affected by floods in the Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Ampara and Trincomalee districts and around 100,000 acres of paddy land in the Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala Puttalam, and Trincomalee Districts were destroyed by the drought earlier. The loss of paddy harvest amounted to 400,000 MT of paddy from the drought
Indian rice for CARs via Pakistan
FOR quite sometime it was expected that Pakistan will ultimately become a conduit for the export of Indian goods to Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics in addition to in Pakistan and that is now becoming a reality. A report in this newspaper Sunday revealed that the Indian rice exporters are eyeing export of Rice to Central Asian Republics through Pakistan to capture the vast market.
The price of Indian rice for export purposes is slightly lower than Pakistani rice because of concessions given by the government. A Pakistani rice exporter has disclosed that some visiting Indian exporters were found searching for ways to tap markets in the region and were interested to export their commodity to CARs through Pakistani land route which costs less. Though presently there is no agreement to allow the transportation of Indian goods through Pakistan to other countries but there is concern in the business community that when the MFN comes into operation, India would certainly seek this facility. Though Pakistan has delayed the grant of the MFN status to India together with the abolition of the negative list for trade due to reservations of various industries but ultimately this would be done at some point of time. Pakistani rice has superior quality and due to short distance, the country is competitive but if Indian rice export was allowed through the transit facility, Pakistani rice would lose its competitiveness. We are not against facilitating Indian goods to other countries but at the same time Pakistan will have to watch its own interests on core issues. Pakistan has suffered a lot in the past and there is consensus that national interests must be kept in view while granting MFN status and other facilities to the neighbouring country.
The price of Indian rice for export purposes is slightly lower than Pakistani rice because of concessions given by the government. A Pakistani rice exporter has disclosed that some visiting Indian exporters were found searching for ways to tap markets in the region and were interested to export their commodity to CARs through Pakistani land route which costs less. Though presently there is no agreement to allow the transportation of Indian goods through Pakistan to other countries but there is concern in the business community that when the MFN comes into operation, India would certainly seek this facility. Though Pakistan has delayed the grant of the MFN status to India together with the abolition of the negative list for trade due to reservations of various industries but ultimately this would be done at some point of time. Pakistani rice has superior quality and due to short distance, the country is competitive but if Indian rice export was allowed through the transit facility, Pakistani rice would lose its competitiveness. We are not against facilitating Indian goods to other countries but at the same time Pakistan will have to watch its own interests on core issues. Pakistan has suffered a lot in the past and there is consensus that national interests must be kept in view while granting MFN status and other facilities to the neighbouring country.
india Rice procurement up by 5% so far this marketing season
Rice procurement has increased by 5 per cent to 16.05 million tonnes so far in 2012-13 marketing year that started in October, even as rice output is estimated to decline during Kharif season.
Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for procurement and distribution of foodgrains, had bought 15.36 million tonnes of rice in the corresponding period of 2011-12 marketing year, according to an official data.
Rice production is estimated to fall at 85.59 million tonnes in the Kharif season of 2012-13 crop year (July-June) from 91.53 million tonnes.
Punjab has contributed maximum to the total procurement where FCI and other state agencies have procured 8.54 million tonnes of rice till date in 2012-13 marketing year (October- September) against 7.66 million tonnes in the year-ago period.
Procurement in Haryana has reached 2.57 million tonnes till date, whereas Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh have contributed 1.74 million tonnes and 1.39 million tonnes, respectively.
Global woes, higher wages at home may hold back Thai exports this year
The euro-zone financial crisis and the impact of the higher minimum wage as well as continuation of farm-subsidy schemes could be a drag on Thailand's exports this year, despite the emerging era of Asian economic growth.
The Commerce Ministry has set the growth target for export value at 8-9 per cent to US$250.41 billion this year, up from the projection of 4.5-5 per cent to $231.86 billion (Bt7 trillion) in 2012.
Hit by many negative factors, the ministry likely missed its ambitious 15-per-cent export-growth target by a wide margin in 2012. In the first 11 months, shipments were valued at Bt211.41 billion, up by just 2.32 per cent year on year. This has prompted enterprises in various sectors to have gloomy prospects for export in 2013 amid high concerns over rising costs of production and labour.
EXPORTERS GLOOMY
Paiboon Ponsuwanna, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said export this year was expected to expand at a slow 5-7 per cent because of higher costs of production, particularly the increase of the daily minimum wage to Bt300 nationwide.
"Global demand will face moderate growth. Thai shipments to many markets will not expand significantly, while higher costs of raw materials and the results of climate change will have big impacts on food production." He added that export by the agricultural-industrial sector was forecast to grow by only 1-2 per cent this year.
In a joint meeting of the Commerce Ministry, enterprises and Thai trade representatives, it was noted that industries that would show strong export expansion this year were automobiles by 15 per cent, electrical appliances by 5 per cent, rubber products by 5 per cent, construction materials by 10 per cent, canned seafood and processed foods, frozen and processed chicken at 12 per cent, and footwear at 5 per cent.
NO GROWTH FOR SOME
Shipments of electronics, jewellery and ornaments, garments, plastic and plastic products, furniture and parts will face flat growth.
Frozen and processed shrimp shipment will drop by 10 per cent while export of canned fruits and vegetables is expected to decline by 5 per cent.
Vallop Vitanakorn, secretary-general of the Thai Garment Manufacturers Association, said the garment industry would face many challenges from the government's policy to improve wages, impacts from the euro-zone crisis, and relocation of garment manufacturers to less developed Asean countries where they can exploit weaker labour protection and low wages.
"Profit margins in the garment industry will be narrowed from 5-6 per cent in previous years to only 1-2 per cent because wages are increasing, but retail prices remain unchanged. Rising wages will also force enterprises to expand into neighbouring countries," Vallop said. Thailand's garment-export value will not enjoy growth in the future as a result, he predicted.
The association forecast that apparel export would face flat growth to only $3 billion this year. Under the worst-case scenario of a severe impact from the euro-zone crunch, apparel shipments could drop by 5 per cent.
To lessen the impacts of the crisis in Europe and higher wages at home, producers have diversified to other markets, mainly poorer nations in Asia, as well as shifting factories to countries that enjoy export privileges.
In 2012, Thai garments' share of the US import market slightly increased from 33 to 35 per cent, Asean rose from 7-8 per cent to 9 per cent, while the EU accounted for 25 per cent and Japan for 12 per cent of the industry's total export value.
Charoen Laothamatas, vice president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, expects that rice exports will not increase next year because of the government's pledging policy resulting in higher export prices than rivals'. The association predicts that export volume will be between 6.5 million and 7 million tonnes, unchanged from last year.
There have been no positive signs for the rice-export market. India will continue exports as usual to release its huge stockpile, and also forecasts rich production. Vietnam is still Thailand's major export rival as it offers lower export prices.
Exporters share similar views that they will have to struggle this year. They said they had to continue promoting shipment to traditional markets such as the US, Japan and the EU. However, the euro crunch is expected to continue to create negative impacts on export to other markets.
VARIOUS FACTORS TO AFFECT EXPORTS
Thai exporters will face many negative factors this year from the economic slowdown in the EU, which is having both direct and indirect impacts on many markets. Also, analysts warn that the euro-zone financial crisis could make it difficult for banks to approve credit for traders, which would create problems for Thai exporters.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will grow by only 3.6 per cent this year, higher than the 3.3 per cent forecast for 2012. Among Thailand's major trading partners, the United States' GDP will grow by 2.1 per cent, Britain's by 1.15 per cent, and France by 0.36 per cent. Italy's GDP will shrink by 0.73 per cent, and Spain will decline by 1.31 per cent.
In the Asian region, China will grow by 8.23 per cent, India by 5.9 per cent, and Japan by 1.23 per cent. Among Asean states, Singapore's GDP will grow by 2.9 per cent, Malaysia by 4.7 per cent, Indonesia by 6.33 per cent, Vietnam by 5.8 per cent, Laos by 8.05 percent, and Myanmar by 6.3 per cent, the IMF predicts.
Conflicts in the Middle East could also have an impact on fuel prices, which would drive up production and transport costs. The Commerce Ministry projects that the Dubai oil price will be $100-$120 a barrel this year, while the National Economic and Social Development Board predicts $108-$113, close to last year's average of $109. The oil price could climb to $130 a barrel early in 2014 after economic stimulus packages in many countries. The exchange rate is projected at Bt28.5-Bt32.5 against the US dollar. Still, the export sector has been warned to monitor closely the resolution of the US "fiscal cliff" and the impact of the euro zone's problems, which will affect global exchange rates, including the baht.
The pressure on China to allow the yuan to appreciate could also affect its export competency, which could affect Thai exports as well.
An unexpected natural disaster could also affect supply of farm production and agricultural-industrial business. Export of crops including rice, rubber, cassava, maize, wheat, shrimp, and cotton could depend on the climate-change factor.
Finally, one of the factors causing the most concern for Thai exports this year is the increase in the minimum daily wage to Bt300 nationwide. Some exporters have complained that this will have a big impact on their production costs. Food, fishery, electronics and garment firms will be the most heavily affected.
PROJECTIONS FOR EACH MARKET
The International Trade Promotion Department projects that the country's export to many emerging countries will continue to expand this year, but shipments to the EU will face flat growth.
Exports to Latin America are expected to increase by 15 per cent, to Asean by 10 per cent, Australia and New Zealand by 10 per cent, to China by 8 per cent, and to North America, Japan, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa by 5 per cent each.
The Commerce Ministry has set the growth target for export value at 8-9 per cent to US$250.41 billion this year, up from the projection of 4.5-5 per cent to $231.86 billion (Bt7 trillion) in 2012.
Hit by many negative factors, the ministry likely missed its ambitious 15-per-cent export-growth target by a wide margin in 2012. In the first 11 months, shipments were valued at Bt211.41 billion, up by just 2.32 per cent year on year. This has prompted enterprises in various sectors to have gloomy prospects for export in 2013 amid high concerns over rising costs of production and labour.
EXPORTERS GLOOMY
Paiboon Ponsuwanna, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said export this year was expected to expand at a slow 5-7 per cent because of higher costs of production, particularly the increase of the daily minimum wage to Bt300 nationwide.
"Global demand will face moderate growth. Thai shipments to many markets will not expand significantly, while higher costs of raw materials and the results of climate change will have big impacts on food production." He added that export by the agricultural-industrial sector was forecast to grow by only 1-2 per cent this year.
In a joint meeting of the Commerce Ministry, enterprises and Thai trade representatives, it was noted that industries that would show strong export expansion this year were automobiles by 15 per cent, electrical appliances by 5 per cent, rubber products by 5 per cent, construction materials by 10 per cent, canned seafood and processed foods, frozen and processed chicken at 12 per cent, and footwear at 5 per cent.
NO GROWTH FOR SOME
Shipments of electronics, jewellery and ornaments, garments, plastic and plastic products, furniture and parts will face flat growth.
Frozen and processed shrimp shipment will drop by 10 per cent while export of canned fruits and vegetables is expected to decline by 5 per cent.
Vallop Vitanakorn, secretary-general of the Thai Garment Manufacturers Association, said the garment industry would face many challenges from the government's policy to improve wages, impacts from the euro-zone crisis, and relocation of garment manufacturers to less developed Asean countries where they can exploit weaker labour protection and low wages.
"Profit margins in the garment industry will be narrowed from 5-6 per cent in previous years to only 1-2 per cent because wages are increasing, but retail prices remain unchanged. Rising wages will also force enterprises to expand into neighbouring countries," Vallop said. Thailand's garment-export value will not enjoy growth in the future as a result, he predicted.
The association forecast that apparel export would face flat growth to only $3 billion this year. Under the worst-case scenario of a severe impact from the euro-zone crunch, apparel shipments could drop by 5 per cent.
To lessen the impacts of the crisis in Europe and higher wages at home, producers have diversified to other markets, mainly poorer nations in Asia, as well as shifting factories to countries that enjoy export privileges.
In 2012, Thai garments' share of the US import market slightly increased from 33 to 35 per cent, Asean rose from 7-8 per cent to 9 per cent, while the EU accounted for 25 per cent and Japan for 12 per cent of the industry's total export value.
Charoen Laothamatas, vice president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, expects that rice exports will not increase next year because of the government's pledging policy resulting in higher export prices than rivals'. The association predicts that export volume will be between 6.5 million and 7 million tonnes, unchanged from last year.
There have been no positive signs for the rice-export market. India will continue exports as usual to release its huge stockpile, and also forecasts rich production. Vietnam is still Thailand's major export rival as it offers lower export prices.
Exporters share similar views that they will have to struggle this year. They said they had to continue promoting shipment to traditional markets such as the US, Japan and the EU. However, the euro crunch is expected to continue to create negative impacts on export to other markets.
VARIOUS FACTORS TO AFFECT EXPORTS
Thai exporters will face many negative factors this year from the economic slowdown in the EU, which is having both direct and indirect impacts on many markets. Also, analysts warn that the euro-zone financial crisis could make it difficult for banks to approve credit for traders, which would create problems for Thai exporters.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will grow by only 3.6 per cent this year, higher than the 3.3 per cent forecast for 2012. Among Thailand's major trading partners, the United States' GDP will grow by 2.1 per cent, Britain's by 1.15 per cent, and France by 0.36 per cent. Italy's GDP will shrink by 0.73 per cent, and Spain will decline by 1.31 per cent.
In the Asian region, China will grow by 8.23 per cent, India by 5.9 per cent, and Japan by 1.23 per cent. Among Asean states, Singapore's GDP will grow by 2.9 per cent, Malaysia by 4.7 per cent, Indonesia by 6.33 per cent, Vietnam by 5.8 per cent, Laos by 8.05 percent, and Myanmar by 6.3 per cent, the IMF predicts.
Conflicts in the Middle East could also have an impact on fuel prices, which would drive up production and transport costs. The Commerce Ministry projects that the Dubai oil price will be $100-$120 a barrel this year, while the National Economic and Social Development Board predicts $108-$113, close to last year's average of $109. The oil price could climb to $130 a barrel early in 2014 after economic stimulus packages in many countries. The exchange rate is projected at Bt28.5-Bt32.5 against the US dollar. Still, the export sector has been warned to monitor closely the resolution of the US "fiscal cliff" and the impact of the euro zone's problems, which will affect global exchange rates, including the baht.
The pressure on China to allow the yuan to appreciate could also affect its export competency, which could affect Thai exports as well.
An unexpected natural disaster could also affect supply of farm production and agricultural-industrial business. Export of crops including rice, rubber, cassava, maize, wheat, shrimp, and cotton could depend on the climate-change factor.
Finally, one of the factors causing the most concern for Thai exports this year is the increase in the minimum daily wage to Bt300 nationwide. Some exporters have complained that this will have a big impact on their production costs. Food, fishery, electronics and garment firms will be the most heavily affected.
PROJECTIONS FOR EACH MARKET
The International Trade Promotion Department projects that the country's export to many emerging countries will continue to expand this year, but shipments to the EU will face flat growth.
Exports to Latin America are expected to increase by 15 per cent, to Asean by 10 per cent, Australia and New Zealand by 10 per cent, to China by 8 per cent, and to North America, Japan, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa by 5 per cent each.
CHINA TO PRODUCE MORE CORN THAN RICE
The U.S. Grains Council (USGC) reports that for the first time in history, China is set to produce more corn than rough rice. The shift depicts the growing affluence by the Chinese middle class and their demand for a more protein-rich diet.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its projection of Chinese corn production from 200 million metric tons (7.9 billion bushels) to 208 million metric tons (8.2 billion bushels). The USDA is also predicting a Chinese rough rice production of a little more than 204 million metric tons.
Rice represents the staple food for India and China, however, data suggests people in China are increasing their desire for animal Protein. China has experience a vast growth in meat demand over the past 20 years; poultry has increased 300 percent, pork consumption has increased 85 percent and beef consumption has increased 155 percent.
"Dramatic shifts in corn production are taking place across the globe," stated Kevin Roepke, USGC manager of global trade, "This is stark evidence that today's corn producer is well poised to take advantage of growing global consumerism."
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its projection of Chinese corn production from 200 million metric tons (7.9 billion bushels) to 208 million metric tons (8.2 billion bushels). The USDA is also predicting a Chinese rough rice production of a little more than 204 million metric tons.
Rice represents the staple food for India and China, however, data suggests people in China are increasing their desire for animal Protein. China has experience a vast growth in meat demand over the past 20 years; poultry has increased 300 percent, pork consumption has increased 85 percent and beef consumption has increased 155 percent.
"Dramatic shifts in corn production are taking place across the globe," stated Kevin Roepke, USGC manager of global trade, "This is stark evidence that today's corn producer is well poised to take advantage of growing global consumerism."
India internal rice market prices
Some fresh buying coupled with low availability of stocks pushed a few aromatic and non-basmati varieties up by Rs 50-300 a quintal on Monday.
After witnessing a fall in prices of Pusa-1121 varieties last week, bulk buyers have taken good advantage by buying at those levels, said Tara Chand Sharma, Proprietor of Tara Chand and Sons.
Traders expect that rice price may increase further in near future following low availability of stocks, he said.
In the physical market, Pusa-1121 (steam) and Pusa-1121 (sela) went up by Rs 300 each and sold at Rs 6,700-6,800 and Rs 5,800 a quintal, respectively.
Pure basmati (raw) quoted at Rs 8,000. Duplicate basmati (steam) traded at Rs 5,500-5,600.
Sharbati (steam) increased by Rs 100 and quoted at Rs 4,300, while Sharbati (sela) was at Rs 4,175, up Rs 75.
Similarly, all PR varieties went up by Rs 50 a quintal. PR-11 (sela) sold at Rs 2,550-2,650 while PR-11 (raw) quoted at Rs 2,550-2,600. Permal (raw) sold at Rs 2,200-2,300 while Permal (sela) went for Rs 2,150-2,300.
PADDY ARRIVALS
About 2,000 bags of PR variety arrived and went for Rs 1,125-1,150; Sharbati arrived with a stock of around 2,000 bags and quoted at Rs 2,100-2,130.
About 5,000 bags of Pusa-1121 arrived and quoted at Rs 3,000-3,200 a quintal.
After witnessing a fall in prices of Pusa-1121 varieties last week, bulk buyers have taken good advantage by buying at those levels, said Tara Chand Sharma, Proprietor of Tara Chand and Sons.
Traders expect that rice price may increase further in near future following low availability of stocks, he said.
In the physical market, Pusa-1121 (steam) and Pusa-1121 (sela) went up by Rs 300 each and sold at Rs 6,700-6,800 and Rs 5,800 a quintal, respectively.
Pure basmati (raw) quoted at Rs 8,000. Duplicate basmati (steam) traded at Rs 5,500-5,600.
Sharbati (steam) increased by Rs 100 and quoted at Rs 4,300, while Sharbati (sela) was at Rs 4,175, up Rs 75.
Similarly, all PR varieties went up by Rs 50 a quintal. PR-11 (sela) sold at Rs 2,550-2,650 while PR-11 (raw) quoted at Rs 2,550-2,600. Permal (raw) sold at Rs 2,200-2,300 while Permal (sela) went for Rs 2,150-2,300.
PADDY ARRIVALS
About 2,000 bags of PR variety arrived and went for Rs 1,125-1,150; Sharbati arrived with a stock of around 2,000 bags and quoted at Rs 2,100-2,130.
About 5,000 bags of Pusa-1121 arrived and quoted at Rs 3,000-3,200 a quintal.
USDA Rice Outlook: Why Southeast Asia has a Rice Surplus and Why it Will Not Go Away
Southeast Asia is the leading source of world rice exports. Production growth in the region has slowed over the last decade. However, weaker consumption growth has allowed for export of a growing surplus. Rice markets favor varieties with relatively low yields but high consumer acceptance. Projections to 2021 foresee continued large exports from Southeast Asia, as regional exporters, including Thailand and Vietnam, are expected to produce enough rice to satisfy the import needs of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, while continuing to serve large import markets outside the region.
Southeast Asia’s rice surplus remains a bright spot amid concerns about global food availability. Net rice exports from Southeast Asia, over 12 million tons in 2011, represent about half the import needs of the rest of the world. The rice surplus flowing out of the region has increased over the past 30 years, and USDA projections (2012) anticipate that this trend will continue over the next decade. Southeast Asian rice exports help underpin the world rice market, and changes in the rice surplus would affect world and U.S. prices. This report examines why Southeast Asia’s rice surplus exists and why it likely will continue.
In USDA’s most recent projections, Southeast Asia’s rice production and consumption are projected to grow at a slower rate over the next decade than in the previous decade. The projected slowdown in the rate of production growth is raising food security concerns because of projected slower production growth of food grains globally. In the case of rice in Southeast Asia, however, it is necessary to look at production changes in the context of consumption. In Southeast Asia, slowing production growth does not appear to threaten regional food security because consumption growth is also slowing. Projected production growth in the region is suffi cient to export a large rice surplus annually (10-12 million metric tons, or mmt) to the rest of the world, helping to meet global food needs.
Southeast Asia’s rice surplus remains a bright spot amid concerns about global food availability. Net rice exports from Southeast Asia, over 12 million tons in 2011, represent about half the import needs of the rest of the world. The rice surplus flowing out of the region has increased over the past 30 years, and USDA projections (2012) anticipate that this trend will continue over the next decade. Southeast Asian rice exports help underpin the world rice market, and changes in the rice surplus would affect world and U.S. prices. This report examines why Southeast Asia’s rice surplus exists and why it likely will continue.
In USDA’s most recent projections, Southeast Asia’s rice production and consumption are projected to grow at a slower rate over the next decade than in the previous decade. The projected slowdown in the rate of production growth is raising food security concerns because of projected slower production growth of food grains globally. In the case of rice in Southeast Asia, however, it is necessary to look at production changes in the context of consumption. In Southeast Asia, slowing production growth does not appear to threaten regional food security because consumption growth is also slowing. Projected production growth in the region is suffi cient to export a large rice surplus annually (10-12 million metric tons, or mmt) to the rest of the world, helping to meet global food needs.
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