Bangladesh Grain and Feed

Assuming normal weather conditions, Bangladesh‟s foodgrain production in MY 2010/11 is forecast at 33.3 million tons (32.3 million tons of rice and 1.0 million tons of wheat), up by 2 percent from the current MY 2009/10 productions. Imports of foodgrains are forecast at 400,000 tons of rice and 2.5 million tons of wheat. Bangladeshi importers are currently sourcing their wheat from other origins due to an Indian ban on wheat exports.

Rice consumption (food, seed, and feed use together) in MY 2010/11 is forecast at 33 million tons assuming a stable wheat supply situation in the Country. Consumption in MY 2009/10 is estimated at 32 million tons up by around 3 percent from MY 2008/09 consumptions. Bumper rice productions in consecutive seasons resulted in a very good stock of rice at government and traders level. The average wholesale price of coarse rice was Taka 21750 (US $320) per ton in December 2009, as compared to Taka 24590 (US $362) in December 2008. The declining trend of rice price since the beginning of MY 2008/09 continued until October of the current MY 2009/10 when the price of rice started to rise. Rice price in January, 2010 marginally crossed the last year‟s price level at this time. The current rising trend of rice prices is unprecedented especially after the harvest of a good Aman rice crop.

Based on the current production forecast, and considering the large carryover stocks held by the farmers, traders and the government, rice imports in MY 2010/11 are forecast at 400,000 tons.
Rice imports in MY 2009/10 are estimated at 400,000 tons (comprising of 200,000 tons public sector imports and the rest private sector imports) as compared to 602,000 tons in MY 2008/09. On a calendar year basis, rice imports in 2009 are estimated at 146,000 tons as compared to 1.68 million tons in 2008, the year heavily affected by crop losses due to cyclones and floods.

Public sector beginning stocks of rice in MY 2009/10 are estimated at 1.15 million tons. In addition to these, stocks of about 8 million tons of rice are estimated to be carried over with the farmers and the traders. However, these private stocks are not included in the PS&D table. The government‟s rice procurement target for MY 2009/10 is 1.5 million tons, as compared to last year‟s actual procurement of 1.45 million tons. The government held stock as on December 31, 2009 was 983,000 tons as compared to 842,000 ton on December 31, 2008. The MY 2009/10 target of public distribution of rice is 1.8 million tons comprising of 1.1 million tons free distribution in kind to the rural vulnerable population and 700,000 tons sales at subsidized prices. Actual distribution of rice by the government was 1.76 million tons in MY 2008/09 out of which about 80 percent was free distribution in kind and the rest was subsidized sales.

Rice imports into Bangladesh are currently duty free. There is no quantitative restriction on rice imports. A ban on export of rice has been in force since May 2008.