than expected this year and approach a record in 2010 on higher African
demand and a lack of shipments from India, according to an exporters' group.
"Thailand benefits from the absence of India in the world market," said
Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Thai Rice Exporters' Association.
Exports may be 8.7 million to 9 million metric tons this year, beating
an earlier forecast of 8.5 million, Chookiat said. Shipments may be 10
million tons in 2010.
India suspended most rice shipments last year amid concern that there
was global shortage, helping to trigger record prices for the grain
that's the staple for billions in Asia and Africa. Similar crises may
occur if rising energy costs again drive commodity prices, including
rice, higher, Chookiat said.
"Thai rice exports next year will hit a new high," said Paka-on
Tipayatanadaja, an analyst at the Kasikorn Research Center. African
demand will expand further in the fourth quarter of this year and into
the first half, she said.
Rice futures in Chicago peaked at $25.07 per 100 pounds in April 2008 as
India was joined by Vietnam and Cambodia in restricting shipments,
prompting a rush for supplies from buyers such as the Philippines, the
top importer. The price traded yesterday at $13.30 per 100 pounds.
'Food Crisis'
"A chance of food crisis could happen every five to six years,"
Chookiat, 55, said yesterday in an interview in Bangkok. "Rice prices
could hit a record should global oil prices rise above $120 a barrel,"
he said.
The surge to an all-time high came as crude oil futures peaked at more
than $147 a barrel last year, boosting farming costs, including
fertilizer. Wheat and corn futures also rose to records in 2008, helping
to spark riots from Haiti to Egypt.
The increase in crude costs "contributed significantly" to higher food
prices, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki- moon said in June 2008.
Global food output needed to rise 50 percent by 2030, Ban said. Crude
futures traded today at $70.11.
"The outlook for Thai rice exports continues to be robust," Chookiat
said, adding that a drought in India this year may help to prolong that
nation's shipment curbs. Thai rice shipments reached a record 10.14
million tons in 2004, and last year totaled 10.01 million tons.
Indian Harvest
Output in India, the second-biggest producer, will total 82 million tons
this crop year, according to the U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service. That
compares with an earlier forecast of 88 million tons, and the record
99.2 million tons harvested in the season ended Sept. 30.
Thailand's 100 percent grade-B white rice, the benchmark export variety,
touched a record $1,038 a ton in May last year. This week the grade was
at $554 a ton, the lowest level since May 20. The exporters'
association, headed by Chookiat since 2006, sets prices each week.
Thai shipments of so-called parboiled rice to Africa may rise to about
4.5 million to 5 million tons this year, beating a previous forecast of
3.5 million tons, and may increase to 5.5 million tons next year,
Chookiat said. Nigeria, Benin, South Africa, Ivory Coast and Senegal are
the five largest African buyers, according to association figures.
The 100 percent grade-B price is likely to remain at about $550 a ton
until the end of next year because of the high level of stockpiles,
Chookiat said. "Buyers know that the Thai government has about 6 million
to 7 million tons of rice in stock," he said. "They won't pay a lot."
In the 2009/2010 crop year, starting November, Thai rice production will
total 23.5 million tons, 1.2 percent more than the previous year,
according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives.
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