FAO predicts rebound in international rice trade

 
The Food and Agriculture Organisation predicts the international rice trade will rebound 2 per cent to 30.7 million tonnes this year, mostly on greater imports by the Philippines, the EU and the Middle East.

An anticipated tightening of supplies and less-attractive world prices may result in reduced exports by India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Egypt and the US. However, China, Thailand, Cambodia and Burma could increase theirs.
Based on present expectations, the FAO's first forecast for next year's rice trade stands at 30.3 million tonnes, 1.3-per-cent below this year's prediction. The 400,000-tonne decline will arise from weaker import demand from major rice importers, mainly Brazil, Indonesia and the Philippines, amid favourable production prospects.
International rice prices remained generally steady in July and August but fell markedly across all market segments last month, when the FAO's All Rice Price Index ended at 232 points, down 20 points from June.
The index averaged 256 points in the first nine months of the year, down 45 points from the same time last year, and the arrival of fresh supplies in coming months may cause it to slide further.
However, actions by governments will remain of foremost importance. Last but not least, a continued fall in international wheat prices, which were down 30 per cent year on year last month, may exert further downward pressure on world rice prices.
PADDY PRODUCTION
The FAO forecasts global paddy production of 668 million tonnes this year, down 3 per cent from last year, reflecting unfavourable climatic conditions in Asian countries, which are about to harvest their main 2009 paddy crops.
Despite the anticipated decline, production will remain high this year, second only to last year's record.
Delayed monsoon rains and erratic precipitation patterns are behind a worsening of this year's production outlook for Asia, now forecast at 601 million tonnes of paddy, down 22 million tonnes, or 3.53 per cent, from last year.
Despite less-favourable growing conditions this season, paddy production in Africa is set to remain close to last year's record 25.4 million tonnes, reflecting an expansion drive from governments and renewed interest in the sector from both institutional and private investors.
Prospects for Latin America and the Caribbean are excellent, with paddy output forecast to rise 4 per cent to 27.5 million tonnes.
In the other regions, paddy production is projected to expand in the EU and the US. Although above last year's dismal crop, Australian production remains well below that in the early part of the decade.