Bangladesh Rice output may drop 7% a year

Rice productivity could decline by 7.4 percent every year until 2050 due

to changing weather.

A study report projects that lost agricultural productivity could amount
to a total loss of $3 billion every year (Tk 210 billion) totalling $121
billion in lost GDP during a 45-year period between 2005 and 2050.

The report on investment in agriculture for higher growth, productivity
and adaptation to climate change projects a likely scenario under the
current weather patterns and finds that the total economy-wide impact in
terms of lost GDP during the period could go up to a staggering $121
billion.

Authored by M Asaduzzaman, research director of Bangladesh Institute of
Development Studies along with Claudia Ringler and James Turlow from the
International Food Policy Research Institute, and Shafiqul Alam from the
agriculture ministry, the report states that climate change also has
broader economy-wide implications.

The study estimates that this would cost Bangladesh $26 billion in terms
of lost agricultural GDP over the 45-year period, equivalent to $570
million per year, "an average annual 1.15 percent reduction in total GDP."

But given Bangladesh's dependence on agriculture, especially in terms of
employment and contribution to GDP, with over 50 percent of the labour
force engaged as farm labourers and accounting for a fifth of the
national GDP, the economy-wide impact of lost agricultural productivity
is quite staggering.

The paper was presented at the first technical session of the two-day
Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum that began on Wednesday in Dhaka.

Devoting much space and emphasis on climate change the report states
that existing climate variability can have pronounced detrimental
economy-wide impacts. "Future climate change will exacerbate these
negative effects."

Earlier in the morning, prime minister Sheikh Hasina inaugurated the
forum, organised by the Bangladesh government.

Mahbub Hossain, executive director of BRAC, pointed to the