Early Monsoon to Aid India Rice Sowing

India’s monsoon, which accounts for four-fifths of the nation’s annual rains, reached the eastern coast three days early, boosting prospects for planting of rice, cotton and corn. Monsoon has set in over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar islands and most parts of the Andaman Sea and condition are “favorable” for further advance over the next 48 hours, the India Meteorological Department said in a statement on its website. These areas usually receive rain about May 20, according to the bureau. India’s 235 million farmers, the world’s second-biggest producers of rice and wheat, rely on the rainy season to water their crops as about 60 percent of arable land isn’t irrigated. Winter-harvested crops, including rice, corn, lentils, cotton and soybeans, are planted after the monsoon begins. “There’s optimism that a normal monsoon will lead to a rebound in agricultural output, particularly rice,” Viresh Hiremath, head of research at Karvy Comtrade Ltd. said in a phone interview from Hyderabad today. “The key to a good harvest will be the distribution of rains over the season.” Global production of rough rice, the staple for half the world’s population, will rise to a record 710 million metric tons in the 2010 calendar year, as harvests in India and the rest of Asia recover from drought, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said on May 10. Still, India’s rice production may fall 10 percent for the current year to 89.3 million tons in 2009-2010 from 99.2 million tons a year earlier after the weakest monsoon in more than three decades reduced rice yields, according to the farm ministry. “El Nino is on the decline and that’s spreading optimism rains this year will be normal and certainly better than last year,” Karvy’s Hiremath said. Rains this year may be 98 percent of the 50-year average, the India Meteorological Department said on April 23. Showers may reach southern Kerala coast on May 30, the weather bureau said on May 14. The bureau, which failed to predict last year’s drought, considers rainfall to be normal if it is between 96 and 104 percent of the long-term average. Rainfall may increase over south India, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep and northeastern states from May 21, the weather bureau said.