Philippines should consider climate change to avoid excessive rice imports

The Philippine government should factor in the effects of climate change
to ensure that it imports just the right amount of rice for the
country's needs, a public think tank said.

In a paper, the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) said
that the government should include climate forecasts in its rice
production and harvest cycle estimates.

Under its Rice Importation Simulation (RIS), the government can be
guided on its rice importation decisions, especially when compounded
with changing seasonal climates.

The RIS – as proposed by a paper entitled "Incorporating Regional Rice
Production Models in Rice Importation Simulation Models" – can be useful
in measuring the Philippines' grain production.

This information, in turn, is crucial for the rice import evaluation of
the Inter-Agency Committee on Rice and Corn (IACRC) and on the
production forecast of the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS).

Contraction of rice imports in the early 1990s, ill-timing of imports in
1995, and overestimated import volumes in 1998 all indicated inaccurate
forecasts. Prices of the staple later rose, caused by supply shortage
and storage costs.

"Inaccurate production forecasts could lead to incorrect volume and
ill-timing of rice imports, which in turn could result in either a waste
of resources for the government or a burden to consumers," said the paper.

Climate change was also blamed for the two weather disturbances that
placed large portions of the Philippines under water.

Crop and infrastructure damage from two consecutive typhoons reached a
record P24 billion.

Most of these damages were rice crops standing on 700,000 hectares while
lost grains were estimated at P18 billion.