Thailand’s 2010 rice shipments may match record -- export chief

Thailand’s rice exports this year may match the record 10 million tons seen in 2008 when global commodity prices surged, the head of the exporters’ association said on Monday, forecasting firm prices due to strong demand.

"If the government manages its stocks well, I think we could export a record 10 million tons this year," Thai Rice Exporters Association President Chookiat Ophaswongse said, referring to the estimated 6 million tons of milled rice held by the government.

"Our conservative forecast is 9 million tons," he added in an interview with Reuters.

Thai rice, a benchmark for the region, is seeing a resurgence in demand as economic recovery spreads across Asia.

Prices jumped around 15% from $550 per ton in January to $630 per ton in December on strong demand, largely from the Philippines, where damage from typhoons hurt production.

After a bumper 2008, Thai rice exports dropped to 8.57 million tons in 2009 as buyers switched to lower-priced rice from Vietnam, the second biggest exporter.

But Thailand will probably recoup market share this year from Vietnam, whose production was unlikely to meet rising world demand because of obligations to its traditional buyer, the Philippines.

The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice importer, held three tenders to buy 600,000 tons of rice in each in December with Vietnam awarded large portions.

"That could be a good opportunity for Thailand to sell more white rice this year as Vietnam will be busy loading rice for Manila," Mr. Chookiat said.

He said parboiled rice sales, especially from African countries, were likely to support overall Thai exports this year, with India expected to keep a rice export ban in place to secure domestic food security after production was cut by poor monsoons.

"Demand from Africa should remain strong this year and we are the only parboiled rice supplier after India banned exports," he said, adding that sales of parboiled rice reached around 50% of total exports in 2009.

India, a major parboiled rice exporter, halted exports from late 2007. That triggered fears about food scarcity and pushed Thailand’s benchmark 100% B grade white rice to a record high of $1,080 per ton in April 2008.

Mr. Chookiat said he expected Thai prices to remain firm this year, without getting anywhere near that record high.

"I think average Thai export prices could move in a range of $550-$650 per ton this year," he said.