Thai rice farmer Pakasit Jamjaras usually spends his days tilling soil, just like his forefathers. Now he’s been harvesting signatures instead of grain, with a petition to King Bhumibol Adulyadej because the government hasn’t paid for his crop in five months.
“We are heavily indebted,” Pakasit, a 47-year-old father of three, said by telephone from Phichit province, about 350 kilometers (217 miles) north of Bangkok. “We need to repay suppliers of fertilizers and others.”
Thailand, once the world’s biggest exporter, is short of funds to help growers under Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s 2011 program to buy the crop at above-market rates. After the government built record stockpiles big enough to meet about a third of global import demand, exports and prices have dropped, farmers aren’t being paid, and the program is the target of anti-corruption probes. Political unrest may contribute to slower growth in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
Selling the government inventory to pay farmers would flood the market with rice, eroding prices that in 2013 fell by the most in at least five years, and would escalate competition for shippers in Asia, including India, Vietnam and Cambodia.
“The program is simply unsustainable and hurting the finances of the country,” said Concepcion Calpe, a senior economist in Rome for the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization. “The suspension of the rice-pledging program will exacerbate the decline in Thai market prices as farmers enrolled in the program increasingly fail to be paid.”
Protests against Yingluck by farmers, who blocked roads in the provinces, added to opposition in Bangkok that led to deadly conflicts. Months of demonstrations led by Suthep Thaugsuban, a former opposition-party power broker, paralyzed parts of the capital and disrupted a national election on Feb. 2. Yingluck heads a caretaker administration until a new government is formed. Thailand, a constitutional monarchy since 1932, had nine coups since 1946, when King Bhumibol assumed the throne.
The price of Thai 5-percent broken white rice, a benchmark grade, tumbled 23 percent last year and was at $460 a metric ton today. A slump to $370 by March is possible as more grain is offloaded from state granaries, according to Chareon Laothamatas, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association. It may take about five years for the state stockpiles to be sold off, Chareon said on Feb. 5.
Yingluck’s program was intended to boost farmers’ incomes and lift prices when it began in October 2011. Instead, Thailand was dethroned as the top exporter as reserves surged. After exporting 10.65 million tons in 2011, shipments slid to 6.7 million last year, behind India and Vietnam, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. Shipments are seen at 8.5 million tons this year, the USDA forecasts.
The government spent 689 billion baht ($21 billion) in the past two crop years buying from farmers at prices that were as much as 76 percent higher than current market rates. The USDA expects that Thai inventories will reach a record 14.7 million tons this year, compared with 6.1 million in 2010.
As stockpiles grew, so did the strain on government finances. Moody’s Investors Service said in June losses from rice subsidies were credit negative for Thailand’s sovereign rating. The International Monetary Fund, the global lender based in Washington, urged the government in November to replace the policy, saying that it was hurting confidence in public finances. Kittiratt Na-Ranong, Thailand’s finance minister at the time, responded to the IMF’s assessment by saying that “the government has our ways to help farmers.”
The National Anti-Corruption Commission said last month it will investigate Yingluck’s role as overseer of the program, after finding enough evidence to charge 15 people, including former Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom. Boonsong said Jan. 16 said that the charge was unfair and he would fight it.
After the commission’s announcement, China’s Heilongjiang province dropped a plan to buy 1.2 million tons from Thailand, a sign that the probe had eroded the confidence of the buyer, caretaker Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan said on Feb. 4.
Yingluck defended the program on Feb. 6, saying that over the past two years the government succeeded in lifting farmers’ incomes, according to a post on her Facebook page. Her caretaker government has limited authority, she wrote. Under the Thai constitution, a caretaker administration can’t borrow new debt or commit to new loans that would obligate the next government.
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