Rice Crop to Reach Record as India Farmers Boost Sowing to Counter Drought

India, the world’s second-biggest rice grower, may have a record harvest this year as increased planting offset drought in the east of the country. Production may total 100 million metric tons in the year ending June 2011, compared with 89.3 million tons a year ago, said Vijay Setia, president of All India Rice Exporters’ Association. Output was a record 99.2 million tons in the year ended June 30, 2009, according to the farm ministry. “It will be a bumper crop this year as overall rains have been good and the government has distributed hybrid and good quality seeds,” Setia said in a phone interview from the northern city of Karnal. A record harvest may prompt the government to lift a two- year-old restriction on exports at a time when global demand is expected to increase as surging wheat prices encourage buyers to switch to rice. Rice exports from Pakistan, the world’s third- largest shipper, are expected to slump after a flooding damaged crops in areas accounting for 90 percent of agricultural output. Indian farmers had planted 27.4 million hectares of rice (67.7 million acres) as of Aug. 13, compared with 25.1 million hectares a year earlier, the farm ministry said last week. The condition of the crop in 16 out of the 19 major rice-growing states is “normal,” the ministry said. Crop conditions are “poor” in Bihar and “satisfactory” in Kerala and West Bengal, the biggest grower, it said. “According to preliminary reports we expect a 75 percent loss in rice production,” Ashok Kumar Sinha, the Bihar state government’s agriculture production commissioner, said in an interview yesterday. “A real assessment will be made in a week as the dry spell is still continuing.” The harvest may not be affected by drought in Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said in New Delhi yesterday. Rainfall in the June-September monsoon, the main source of irrigation for the country’s 235 million farmers, was 4 percent lower than average as of yesterday, according to the state-owned weather bureau. Rain in Bihar was 29 percent lower than normal, and 31 percent deficient in West Bengal. The crop in West Bengal will be lower than the 14.8 million tons last year because of drought in 11 districts, Narendranath Dey, farm minister of the state, said by phone today. Food grain production in Jharkhand may be less than last year’s 2.2 million tons, said Deepak Singh, agriculture director with the Jharkhand government. Rice accounts for 85 percent to 90 percent of the grains in the state, he said. Rice futures in Chicago last month lost their premium over wheat for the first time since March 2008 as the worst drought in Russia in at least 50 years, dry conditions in Europe and rains in Canada curbed global wheat supply and pushed prices to the highest in almost two years. The price climbed to $16.27 per 100 pounds last December on concern that India may become a net importer for the first time in more than two decades and as the Philippines boosted imports after storm destroyed crops. Rice for November delivery traded at $11.17 at 5:47 p.m. Singapore time. Almost 700,000 hectares of standing crops in Pakistan are either underwater or destroyed by floods, the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said on Aug. 11. Pakistan was expected to export 3.8 million tons of rice this year, more than 10 percent of the estimated global shipments of 30.4 million tons, according to the FAO, which made the forecast in July, before the flooding. India won’t lift a ban on exports as it needs grains for supply to the poor at subsidized rates, Pawar said on Aug. 10. There are “prospects” to export wheat after a recent surge in global prices, Trade Secretary Rahul Khullar told reporters in New Delhi today. The government banned exports of all grades of rice except the aromatic Basmati variety in April 2008, to increase domestic supplies. The restriction remains in place as a drought in 2009 pared production by 10 percent in the year ended June 30. The country’s rice reserves on July 1 were 24.26 million tons, more than double the normal buffer of 9.8 million tons, according to data compiled by the state-run Food Corp. of India.