Australia to export rice gain

Total area planted to rice in 2011/12 is forecast to increase sharply to 35,000 hectares. Despite this increase, this area remains well below the ten-year-average of 64,000 hectares and well below the record of 177,000 hectares planted in 2000/01. Prolonged and severe drought, which began in 2002/03, has seen planted area fall to just 2,000 hectares in 2007/08. Planting of the 2011/12 rice crop is expected to commence in November. Post has assumed average weather conditions in the lead up to planting and this, combined with good rainfall since late December, should see production rise. Production Rice production for 2011/12 is forecast at 299 TMT, up sharply on the revised estimate for the previous year. If achieved, this crop will be the biggest crop harvested since 339 TMT was harvested in 2004/05. Post advises that this forecast is based on average rainfall. Above average rainfall would likely see 2011/12 production forecast revised upwards. Industry sources place rice production potential in the 250-400 TMT range. Post has revised production for 2010/11 upwards slightly to 185 TMT in line with industry expectations. Recent rainfall and modest improvements in irrigation water supplies is expected to result in yield improvement. Trade Since the drought began in 2002/03, rice has been imported in steadily increasing quantities while exports of rice have steadily fallen. However, a return to more normal production conditions is expected to see domestic supplies of rice increase. Post expects that, going forward, imports of rice to fall steadily while exports begin to build. Post forecasts 2011/12 rice imports to decrease to 200 TMT while exports of rice increase to 65 TMT. Post expects this trend to continue as domestic rice production returns to levels more reflective of the long term average. According to Global Trade Atlas data, the overwhelming majority of Australia’s imported rice is sourced from Thailand. However, the United States has recently become another significant supplier and, although minor by comparison, now stands as Australia’s second largest supplier.