MY 2009/10 rice production forecast downward to 82 million tons from the
early August forecast of 88 million tons. This revision is due to further
deterioration in the drought situation in several parts of the country.
Domestic rice prices are expected to remain firm due to a significant
decline in production and a higher minimum support price announced by the
government. Larger wheat and rice stocks should help to narrow the
supply/demand gap emanating from lower rice production in MY 2009/10 and
help avoid imports in the near term.
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