Thailand's rice exports are expected to exceed the target of 8.5 million tonnes this year, as some rival countries are likely to bar exports until next year because of weak monsoon rains.
"We are closely monitoring the world rice market environment and foresee a higher chance to export rice beyond the target, as certain producers are now facing a poor monsoon," said Chutima Bunyapraphasara, director-general of the Foreign Trade Department at the Commerce Ministry.
India, in particular, is facing increasing pressure from poor rainfall, as monsoon rains, the main source of irrigation for its 235 million farmers, have been 25% below average so far this season.
As a result, monsoon paddy planting acreage has been reduced by 28% this year because of water supply in the main growing regions.
Lower crop output is expected to prompt India to delay exports of non-basmati rice.
India banned non-basmati rice exports last year to stave off shortages at home, but a bumper harvest later encouraged it to resume sales to some countries.
In January, it scrapped the export tax on basmati rice and reduced the floor price for shipments.
Higher supplies allowed Delhi to export 1 million tonnes of non-basmati rice by state firms, but only for government-to-government deals.
India shipped about 2.9 million tonnes last year. The shipments represented a significant decline from its usual annual exports of 5-6 million tonnes, roughly divided among basmati, parboiled and white rice.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said India's plans were critical for Thailand's rice outlook.
"It is highly likely that India would not be able to resume its exports of non-basmati rice within this year due to insufficient rain," he said.
"We are thus feeling upbeat about achieving shipments of 8.5 million to 8.7 million tonnes of rice by year-end."
According to Mr Chookiat, rice shipments by Vietnam, the world's second largest rice exporter behind Thailand, are also unlikely to be active for the remaining months.
Hanoi has signed futures contracts to sell 5.2 million tonnes of rice and is about to achieve its target of 6 million.
The Thai government is estimated to have milled rice stockpiles of about 7 million tonnes, the highest ever.
The government said last month it planned to sell 500,000 tonnes of milled rice and 600,000 tonnes of paddy rice from its stocks this month, but no details have been set yet.
In a related development, the government yesterday called a bid for 300,000 tonnes of grade-B 100% Hom Mali rice from state stocks via the Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand (Afet).
The bid drew overwhelming interest from 45 bidders and was conducted on a "basis auction" method whereby Afet rice futures would be used as the reference. Deliveries were set for September, October and November.
Afet's largest-ever auction came after the National Rice Policy Committee ruled on July 17 that officials could release a total of 763,920 tonnes of milled rice bought during the 2008-09 main-crop season for sale via the exchange.
No comments:
Post a Comment