Indian to record-high harvest

Indian Department of Agricultural Research is forecasting record-high production for the next crop. No news of export ban lift, except for PUSA-1121 which is now allowed for export at a minimum export price of 1.200 USD. Basmati export should also rise to record-high level.

Back to business

After a long summer pause this blog is back into business again.

Vietnam gains competitiveness on Thailand

The Thai paddy rice prices support program is making the finished product of this country less convenient than the one proposed by Vietnam: while thai farmers can sell to the government, in Vietnam there is no similar instrument. In addition, both countries have a rich harvest under way, bringing commodity to the market. At the same time buyers are rather geared towards the expectation of most interesting quotes.

These are indicative quotations:
Thai 100% B at $ 760 - $ 840 / t
Thai 5% at $ 740 - $ 820 / t
Thai parboiled 100% sortexed at $ 790 - $ 900 / t
Vietnam 5% at $ 740 / t

More rice in Vietnam brings prices further down

As a result of increased availability of paddy rice, we are in full harvest period in fact, rice traders in Vietnam offered long grain rice at $750 per tonne FOB Ho Chi Minh, substantially downward from the latest surveys.

This doesn't mean the price may fall further, given the increased costs of fuel and fertilisers used by farmers.

Thai rice market developments

Rising prices detected in the early days of the current week seem mostly due to improved performance of the government purchase of paddy scheme: the latter had started slow, but it seems now that farmers prefer to sell to the government rather than rice millers. Buyers may now prefer to purchase from Vietnam.

At the same time it should be noted that many buyers are absent from the market, be it for high prices, either for purchases made earlier in fear of even higher prices: the market trend might well evolve again towards lower prices

Rice prices in Thailand

Below are reported prices for Thai rice for the past week.

Thai 100% grade B

02/07 $740-$840
03/07 $740-$839
04/07 $740-$839
08/07 $760-$840

Parboiled 100% sortexed

02/07 $790-$900
03/07 $790-$900
04/07 $790-$900
08/07 $790-$900

In vietnam, the prevailing price for 5% rice has been $750-$800.

All prices per Metric Ton, FOB port of loading.

Analysis of long grain rice market

Thailand. Given government's support scheme aimed at purchasing paddy from growers at 14.000 Bath, milled rice could have a floor at $700, the corresponding price for milled rice.

India. Predictions for coming harvests are good, so there are chances the export ban might be lifetd.

Vietnam. Official minimum export price has been cut by 2.5 percent to $780 per tonne due to slow export demand. Privately, traders say prices are already lower than this.

Thai prices weaker

Competition from Vietnam and a weaker Bath are keeping Thai ric eprices
under pressure; therefore, monday offers were on average lower by $20/ton
than a week before.

Thai 100% grade B was offered at $740-$840/ton;
Parboiled 100% sortexed was offered at $790-$900/ton.

Prices, free-on-board basis, Bangkok.

AFET to offer Hom Mali futures trading

AFET, Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand, preparing to introduce trading of Thai Hom Mali Rice Grade B contracts on July 14. Thai Hom Mali Rice 100% Grade B contract would be traded under the symbol BHMR, with a contract size of 15 tonnes per unit. Trading would be allowed for both options as currently executed for 5% white rice. Under the both-options regime, traders are allowed to settle contracts in cash or by physical delivery. In the past, only cash settlements were allowed.

Hom Mali exports have grown steadily by 10% on average over the last three years, with last year's figure reaching 1.864 million tonnes. For the first five months of this year, Hom Mali shipments amounted to 917,000 tonnes, up 21% from a year earlier. Last year, three of the top 10 Hom Mali importers _ Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Ghana _ were in Africa. Senegal alone imported up to 540,000 tonnes.

Asian Rice: Prices Unch-Up On Steady Demand Amid Tight Supply

Indicative prices of Asian rice were steady to higherThursday on steady demand from consumers amid tight export inventories inThailand and Vietnam. In Thailand, buyers and traders were making inquiries, but most suppliersweren't providing price indications as local prices have been steadily on therise, exporters said. "Domestic prices are increasing not just on a daily basis but on hourlybasis. Morning prices are different from afternoon prices," one exporter said. Most suppliers are reluctant to sign new contracts as they could lose moneydue to unpredictable local prices, exporters said. At the same time, most suppliers are busy securing supplies to fulfilloutstanding contracts, they added. "We haven't been responding to inquiries because we have been busy withpending shipments. People are now lining up for supply," another exporter said. Most exporters won't be able to make offers until next month when the bulk ofa new crop will have been harvested, exporters said. The new crop, which farmers have started to harvest, is expected to yieldaround 3.3 million metric tons of rice, they said. Thai 100% grade B was indicated at $570 per ton, free-on-board Bangkok; 5%broken at $560/ton, FOB and parboiled at $620/ton, FOB. These prices are$10-$20 higher than prices indicated Wednesday.